Does it seem like tornadoes are becoming a bigger and bigger threat? It hasn't been uncommon this year to turn on the news to see a trail of devastation. It's not just you. Tornado researchers say that tornadoes are becoming a bigger threat to homes than they previously were. It's all thanks to an increase in urban development and change in weather patterns.
Researchers say tornadoes are occurring more in some states and less frequently in others. The times of year they're popping up is also changing. However, there's some good news in that the number of overall tornadoes hasn't increased. However, the odds of them striking a home or dwelling has increased, and really we only have ourselves to blame. There's a larger number of homes than there was 40 years ago. That's all thanks to urban development. It plays an increased role, according to a a study co-authored by Stephen Strader, a hazards geographer and meteorologist at Villanova University.
Co-author Victor Gensini, an associate professor and meteorologist at Northern Illinois University, says states must recognize these vulnerabilities.
"If a tornado goes out into the middle of a corn field and doesn't hit anything, the person who cares is the farmer, but take that same tornado and put it over a subdivision, and that illustrates the most important part of the disaster landscape," Gensini said. "Where we are and what we are matters."
Tornadoes Play Bigger Risk
Places where tornado risk has increased include the South. Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee have experienced an increase in twisters. "The probability of a tornado hitting people in that mid-South region has increased by about 300%," Strader said. "It was three times more likely in 2020 than in 1980."
As far as the change in weather patterns, researchers are blaming climate change as increasing favorable conditions for storms.
"We need to start from the premise that climate change is affecting every event, but we need to figure out how much," he said. He sees the fingerprint of climate change in the decreasing frequency of tornadoes in portions of the Great Plains and possibly in the increase of tornadoes in the cooler months, but the science of defining the extent of its impacts in tornadoes "is still in its infancy."
The increase in urban development, however, plays a larger role in these natural disasters. "The disaster isn't the tornado," Strader said. "It's what the tornado is hitting that becomes the disaster, and that is 90% driven by society's exposure."
"It's harder to stop the climate change train, but if you can say as a city 'We're going to enforce building codes or put in shelters,' those are the things that are going to save lives," Gensini said.
